Wastewater Samples Show Higher COVID Concentrations & New Subvariant

The Hawai‘i State Department of Health’s most recent Wastewater Surveillance Report documents two significant developments about COVID-19 in Hawai‛i.

• Higher concentrations of the virus that causes COVID-19
• The arrival of the XBB.1.5 subvariant

Higher concentrations in wastewater can be an early indicator the number of COVID-19 infections is increasing.

“The wastewater data is concerning, but not alarming,” said State Epidemiologist Dr. Sarah Kemble. “The detection of higher virus concentrations means we should closely monitor case counts and hospitalizations for a possible surge in cases and be ready to respond should a surge materialize.”

Case counts have been relatively stable since mid-September with new case averages ranging between 137 and 182 new cases per day.

Data from the Healthcare Association of Hawaii shows a modest increase in the number of people in Hawai‛i hospitals with COVID-19. On November 25, 2022 there was a seven-day rolling average of 55 people hospitalized with COVID-19. On January 5, 2023 that average had increased to 80.

These numbers are still far below peaks of the Delta and Omicron surges during which time as many as 400 people were in Hawai‛i hospitals with COVID-19.

The wastewater sample containing the XBB.1.5 subvariant was collected on O‘ahu.

“XBB.1.5 has not been detected on the neighbor islands yet, but I expect it may only be a matter of time before we find it there too,” said State Laboratories Division Administrator Dr. Edward Desmond. “It took just a few weeks for XBB.1.5 to become the dominant COVID-19 strain in New England and data shows it is moving quickly across the rest of the mainland.”

White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha is sharing information about XBB.1.5 on social media. He indicates XBB.1.5 may be more contagious than previous strains of COVID-19 but that more research will have to be done before we know if it is more virulent.

Jha and other experts continue to urge people to get updated bivalent boosters to protect against severe illness and death. He said if your last vaccine was before the bivalent boosters were approved in September, “Your protection against XBB.1.5 infection is probably not that great.”

COVID-19 vaccines and boosters are available for free at pharmacies, clinics, and medical facilities across the state. Vaccine appointments can be scheduled by visiting https://hawaiicovid19.com/vaccine/.